Welcome to the June Edition of The Surge
Welcome to The Surge, as we cut through the noise to tell you what actually matters in global upstream; the thinking shaping the market, the deals and rounds worth watching, and where you can join the conversation in person.
Frontier Upstream Insights - Designing the Perfect Bid Round
The headline takeaway from last week’s Frontier Upstream Insights panel is simple: geology no longer wins on its own. Good rocks and good geology simply aren’t enough; the countries that win must present a serious, investable proposition.
Our panel, featuring Graeme Bagley - Westwood Global Energy Group, Vandana Gangaram Panday – Staatsolie, Valerie Marcel – New Producers for Sustainable Energy, Adriano Roessler Viana – Petrobras and our own Founder and CEO, Gayle Meikle - discussed a genuine recalibration in licensing strategy worldwide. Traditional competitive bid rounds still matter in proven basins, but governments are increasingly experimenting with open and continuous-access models with Egypt's Upstream Gateway being the standout, as it echoes principles closer to Norway's open-acreage approach than the old fixed-round playbook.
The thread running through the conversation was, of course, competition for capital. Investors are not short of basin options, but they are short of time. A bid round in West Africa isn't only up against its immediate neighbours; it's being benchmarked against Suriname, Kazakhstan, the Eastern Mediterranean and so on. In this landscape, the governments winning attention are the ones that listen, respond and make their data and terms easy to engage with.
Which leads neatly to the other recurring theme: data. Access to good subsurface data remains one of the most effective ways to reduce early-stage risk and the smartest regulators are treating open, well-organised legacy data as a competitive weapon, not an afterthought.
What the Future Holds… the numbers that matter
22m boe/d – This is the production replacement gap Wood Mackenzie projects the world's 30 largest oil and gas companies face by 2040 if they hold output flat.
~40% - Global exploration success rates, as per Enverus analysis; even with drilling levels still relatively low. In other words, the discoveries are still being made.
Based on those figures and the overall discussion, the global upstream mood as judged by our panel is, in short, selectively optimistic. Frontier exploration is firmly back on the agenda, but it's a far more disciplined, more selective form than the last cycle.
Industry Update - Licensing Rounds to Watch: H2 2026
It’s our job to have our finger firmly on the pulse of what’s coming up and the next six months are shaping up to be one of the most active licensing windows in years. Governments are taking increasingly innovative approaches to market engagement; they’re competing harder - and smarter - than they have in over two decades.
Canada — Newfoundland & Labrador. Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Energy Regulator's 2026 Calls for Bids offer 16 exploration parcels covering more than 3.68 million hectares across the Eastern and South-Eastern Newfoundland regions. Bids are due by 4 November 2026, with a minimum work commitment of CAD $10 million per parcel. C-NLOER will be discussing this in detail at the World Energies Summit | The World’s Premier Global Upstream Conference | 29th - 30th September 2026 - find out how to join us.
Malaysia’s Bid Round 2026 deserves attention because PETRONAS is offering both exploration and “ready-to-develop” opportunities: nine exploration blocks and six Discovered Resource Opportunities (DROs) across the Malay, Sarawak and Sabah basins. Bid submissions are expected in the second half of 2026.
Libya is back. On 11 February 2026, Libya's National Oil Corporation announced the results of its first licensing round since 2007, with winners including Chevron, a consortium of Eni and QatarEnergy, Repsol and Nigeria's Aiteo. Not a frontier in geological terms but a powerful signal of a Tier-1 province reopening.
Argentina is one to watch - particularly around Vaca Muerta expansion and offshore development ambitions. The country’s attraction lies in the scale of unconventional resources and increasing efforts to position Argentina as a globally competitive long-term hydrocarbon supplier. The potential is huge.
Uruguay is highly relevant from an Atlantic Margin perspective. Following Namibia and Orange Basin success, investors continue reassessing South Atlantic conjugate margin plays, and Uruguay remains strategically interesting - despite exploration risk. Hear from ANCAP’s Santiago FerroCastelli at the World Energies Summit | The World’s Premier Global Upstream Conference | 29th - 30th September 2026.
Algeria. Following its Government Platinum Showcase at this year’s Africa Energies Summit | Africa’s Premier Global Upstream Conference | 11th - 13th May 2027, Algeria’s regulator ALNAFT is preparing a new licensing round expected in 2026, with European demand for non-Russian gas sharpening its strategic importance. Hear more from ALNAFT during the World Energies Summit, this September.
Geopolitical uncertainty, energy security, increasing demand – these are the key topics influencing upstream development in the here and now: check out our latest insights across the global upstream landscape.
Global Upstream Leaders - Aberdeen Edition
Earlier this month, the Global Upstream Leaders Series landed in Aberdeen during EAGE 2026, bringing together more than 100 senior industry professionals representing 56 companies from across the globe; a truly international forum for discussion, collaboration and connection. The programme featured a standing-room-only panel session, moderated by Frontier COO, Daniel Davidson, and featuring insight from: Kevin McLachlan - Chevron, Bill Langin - Talos Energy, Jonilton Pessoa - Petrobras, Irene Waage Basili - Shearwater GeoServices and Ariel Flores - bp. And of course, we followed this up with our Leaders' Reception, where the famous Frontier networking once again delivered the conversations, connections and insights that set our events apart.
The calibre of discussion, the diversity of organisations in the room and the willingness of leaders to engage candidly reinforced exactly why Frontier remains the premier platform for global upstream leadership. Our thanks go to sponsors TGS, Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies and bp.
In addition, Gayle moderated two crucial discussions during the wider EAGE conference. Her key reflections from her panel with bp, Aramco, Viridien, TotalEnergies and TGS can be read at “Where Now for Exploration? How Do We Replace the Reserves the World Needs?”
Next Stop: Rio de Janeiro - 9th September
Latin America's upstream sector is entering 2026 as the engine of global oil supply growth, with the "Big Three" of Brazil, Guyana and Argentina set to push regional output past 8.8 million b/d.
Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale boom is the standout story, drawing a projected $22 billion in energy investment and putting the country on a path to become a global top-10 producer. Brazil continues to break records on pre-salt FPSO ramp-ups with Petrobras committing $69 billion to upstream through 2030, while facing a defining decision on the Equatorial Margin frontier just as it hosts COP30. Guyana's offshore Stabroek block keeps scaling rapidly past 900,000 b/d, and Venezuela remains one to watch with production recovering towards pre-blockade levels but its longer-term revival uncertain.
Against this backdrop, it’s no wonder that Frontier convenes its first Latin America Global Upstream Leaders Forum in Rio de Janeiro later this year. under the strategic theme “Latin America’s Deepwater Advantage: Scaling a New Era of Supply.” This is the right room, in the right region, at the right moment. Members and invited guests only – find out more.
World Energies Summit – Showcasing Global Upstream Opportunities to the World
Where Governments Come to Connect, Collaborate and Get Deals Done
Following its 2026 Calls for Bids, we recently announced that Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Energy Regulator CEO/CCO Scott Tessier and his team will join the World Energies Summit | The World’s Premier Global Upstream Conference | 29th - 30th September 2026 in London this September to engage directly with investors and energy companies on the investment case for offshore Newfoundland and Labrador, and the data now de-risking it. A clear example of a regulator taking its opportunity to the most senior network in global upstream and just one of several governments already confirmed for the Summit, including Algeria – ALNAFT, Angola - Sonangol, China - China National Petroleum Corporation, Greece – Hellenic Hydrocarbons and Energy Resources Management Company (HEREMA), Malta - Continental Shelf Department, Sri Lanka - Petroleum Development Authority of Sri Lanka, Uruguay - ANCAP
Regional Insight = Relevant Agenda
Our Strategic Partners play a defining role in shaping the Summit and this year, we’re working closely with Southeast Asia Petroleum Exploration Society (SEAPEX), Continental Europe Energy Council, The Geopolitical Desk, London Oil Scouts, Latin America and Caribbean Scout Group London, and London Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa Scout Group (MMEA).
Their regional expertise and market insight keep every discussion rooted in what's happening on the ground, and as we widen our focus on the opportunities and challenges shaping global upstream, that local capability is exactly what helps us deliver the conversations that matter.
Request the Agenda
World Energies Summit 2026 is set around six core themes, including “Geopolitics, Energy Security & Global Competition”, “Capital, Infrastructure & Project Delivery” and “Delivering Future Energy Supply”, whilst regional focus and representation will come from Asia Pac, The Americas, MENA, Europe & East Med, Caspian & Central Asia, and Africa. Dive deeper into what you can expect by requesting the latest agenda.
On the Frontier - Where You’ll Find Us
World Energies Summit | 29th -30th September 2026, London, UK
The world's premier global upstream conference returns, convening C-suite leaders, regulators and investors for two days of deal-making and strategy. If your basin, your capital or your business-development plan for 2027 needs the right rooms and the right conversations, this is where they happen.
Frontier Upstream Insights | Next Session: 7th October 2026
“Sanctions, Conflicts & Energy Security: How Geopolitics is Redrawing the Global Upstream Map”. As energy security climbs every government's agenda, we bring the operators, analysts and strategists together to make sense of it. Register to attend this LinkedIn Live session.
Global Upstream Leaders’ Forum | 18th November 2026, Houston, USA
“The Future of Upstream: Redefining Leadership in a Transforming Energy World” The original Frontier Leaders Forum. We return for our renowned Houston gathering, to explore how leadership, investment and collaboration are redefining the upstream sector. Members and invited guests only.
Africa Energies Summit | 11th – 13th May 2027, London, UK
The anchor upstream oil and gas event for the continent, we bring together senior decision-makers from governments, national oil companies, international operators, independents, financiers and service providers for a high-level forum built around strategic dialogue and deal-making. Our unique, relationship-driven format focuses on curated roundtables, closed-door briefings and C-level panels
Our latest video brings the Africa Energies Summit to life! From high-level discussions and powerful keynotes to the connections that spark real investment and progress. Whether you were there or missed it, this is your chance to see why the Summit is a must-attend for anyone serious about Africa’s energy future.
Watch now and feel the momentum.
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